6
Jel Pepper
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 87
Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 2 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 85% | -0.07 |
| 11/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 19th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |