12
Roach Power
7yo Gelding · 8-2 · OR 70
Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 12.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 19th | 21th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 18th | 20th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/11/2025 | 19th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 15/08/2026 | 18th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 06/09/2026 | 19th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |