IvyArcIvyArc
9

Stargazed

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83

Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

A fair 5f winner at 2 yrs who resumed with a very good second at York in May. Below that form since though, tried in a visor when eighth of 19 in handicap at York (5f, good) last month. This slow starter is not easy to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 13/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 12813/0624 @ Beverley 04/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 1284 @ Ripon 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f GS 12819/074C1 @ ParisLongchamp 31/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 83 · 4f213y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 86 · 5f Gd 131 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 86 par15/053OR 862 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 27 · OR 89 · 5f GF 120 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/062OR 903 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f17y Goo 128 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 119 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 86 par19/082OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York28th8th0
2026-07-25Chester37th8th−1
2026-06-27York28th8th0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot212th12th0
2026-05-15York32nd3rd−1
2025-08-31ParisLongchamp?5th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0631/0827/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20256th4/179%17%-0.62
04/07/20254th9/276%57%-0.19
19/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
31/08/20255th16/116%56%+0.40
15/05/20262nd16/116%94%+0.78
19/06/202612th22/10%58%+0.58
27/06/20268th17/255%42%-0.14
25/07/20267th40/10%0%0.00
19/08/20268th25/10%61%+0.61