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5

Trilby

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 89

Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Rejuvenated by fitting of cheekpieces this season and notched a third success at Beverley (5f) in August. Posted another very good effort when sixth of 23 in Silver Cup at Ayr (6f, heavy) a week ago, coming home second in his group. This 4-time course winner seems sure to go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 126 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 76 par4/054OR 764 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 5f Sft 125 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par23/054OR 754 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par25/072OR 854 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 6f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 5f Sft 130 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par29/083OR 852 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 5f Sft 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 23 · OR 85 · 6f Hvy 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 85 par19/092OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr26th6th0
2026-09-05Haydock22nd2nd0
2026-08-29Beverley31st2nd−1
2026-08-11Hamilton44th6th−2
2026-07-25York215th15th0
2026-06-09Carlisle41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/059/0629/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20266th9/488%17%-0.71
21/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
23/05/20263rd14/126%89%+0.63
09/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
25/07/202615th66/10%30%+0.30
11/08/20264th16/116%73%+0.57
29/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
05/09/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
19/09/20266th10/147%77%+0.30