IvyArcIvyArc
2

Kaguyahime

2yo Filly · 9-2

Haydock · British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off 11/1 but made a promising start when third of 10 in maiden at Ascot (1m, good) 22 days ago, taking third late on under hand riding. This Starspangledbanner filly is open to a fair bit of progress and looks the one to beat for her in-form handler.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f213y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/092
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36