IvyArcIvyArc
12

Angel Gabriel

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 83

Haydock · Forever Our Mike Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 3-y-o who was far from disgraced when fourth at Epsom (6f) on his penultimate start and he found a chunk of improvement returned to ground softer than good when scoring at Windsor (6f) 4 weeks ago, making all. 4 lb rise shouldn't prevent another bold bid with conditions looking ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f2y Hvy 1338/1145 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 1334 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f1y Std 13315/1244 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 137 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 81 · 7f GF 136 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 81 par10/074OR 814 @ Kempton 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 80 · 6f3y Goo 136 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 80 par14/084OR 804 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 6f12y Sft 134 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 79 par29/084OR 79projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor41st2nd−1
2026-08-14Epsom Downs44th5th−1
2026-08-05Kempton43rd4th−1
2026-07-10Newmarket48th9th−1
2026-06-25Newmarket44th5th−1
2025-12-15Lingfield41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1125/0614/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20252nd7/163%88%+0.24
21/11/20252nd4/797%88%-0.09
15/12/20251st8/1597%100%+0.03
25/06/20264th10/382%25%-0.57
10/07/20268th22/10%30%+0.30
05/08/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
14/08/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
29/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14