IvyArcIvyArc
11

Art Lover

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 85

Haydock · Forever Our Mike Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ffos Las maiden winner who has shaped well all 4 starts so far this season, staying on well when third of 9 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f) 9 days ago. Yet to encounter ground this soft but present mark certainly looks exploitable. Cheekpieces on first time for stable who won this 12 months ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ York 31/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 13331/0535 @ Windsor 28/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 1335 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f GS 13328/0854 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 87 · 6f2y Goo 137 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 87 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 6f Sta 137 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 87 par8/104OR 874 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f17y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 86 par28/083OR 864 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 6f3y Gd 128 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 85 par17/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Yarmouth33rd3rd0
2026-09-09Kempton42nd3rd−1
2026-08-28Thirsk34th4th0
2026-07-11Chester42nd3rd−1
2025-10-08Kempton47th8th−1
2025-09-12Doncaster48th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0512/0928/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20259th6/168%20%-0.48
28/07/20252nd7/491%88%-0.03
28/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
12/09/20258th5/174%50%-0.24
08/10/20257th10/382%25%-0.57
11/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
28/08/20264th14/126%82%+0.56
09/09/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
17/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38