Black Star Boy
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 88
Haydock · Forever Our Mike Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 1 | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 1 | 8th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 19/08/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 39% | +0.02 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |