IvyArcIvyArc
14

Proof

3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 77

Haydock · Forever Our Mike Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

56%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved better than ever having been gelded when defeating a subsequent winner at Epsom (6f) in August and emerged with credit from a tricky draw when staying on well for fifth behind Miraculous at Chester (6f, heavy) 7 days ago. Fancied to be much closer to that rival on these revised terms.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength33%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Sft 125 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 75 par25/104OR 754 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 6f2y Hvy 125 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 75 par11/044OR 753 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 79 · 5f15y Goo 124 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 78 · 6f6y Gd 128 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 78 par17/054OR 782 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 134 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 75 par23/065OR 755 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 6f3y GS 131 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f17y Hvy 129 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 77 par19/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Chester45th6th−1
2026-08-31Epsom Downs51st3rd−2
2026-06-23Ffos Las56th8th−2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs213th12th+1
2026-05-17Hamilton48th9th−1
2026-05-08Chester39th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/108/0523/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20254th4/179%50%-0.29
08/11/20253rd9/276%78%+0.01
11/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
08/05/20269th17/255%27%-0.28
17/05/20268th25/10%46%+0.46
05/06/202613th22/10%20%+0.20
23/06/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
31/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
19/09/20265th25/10%56%+0.56