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So Darn Hot

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 90

Haydock · Forever Our Mike Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time winner for Kevin Philippart de Foy. Yet to get his head in front for present yard, but well backed minus cheekpieces when posting a creditable third of 7 in handicap at Salisbury (6f) 6 weeks ago. Not dismissed from this reduced mark with forecast conditions holding no fears.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 02/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 6f12y Goo 135 · beat its mark02/06/2025 · OR 93 par2/063OR 932 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 7f36y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 6f Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 100 par17/122OR 1002 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 99 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 97 · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 97 par3/042OR 972 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 28th of 28 · OR 94 · 7f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 94 par18/062OR 943 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 92 · 6f GF 139 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 140 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 90 par12/083OR 90projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Salisbury33rd3rd0
2026-07-10Ascot35th5th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot228th27th+1
2026-05-09Ascot27th6th+1
2026-04-03Newcastle26th5th+1
2026-01-01Southwell212th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/061/0118/0612/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
25/11/20253rd16/116%67%+0.51
17/12/20255th10/382%56%-0.27
01/01/202612th16/116%8%-0.07
03/04/20266th40/10%62%+0.62
09/05/20267th28/10%78%+0.78
18/06/202628th50/10%0%0.00
10/07/20265th11/271%60%-0.11
12/08/20263rd13/891%67%-0.25