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4

Mind Those Steps

2yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 79

Haydock · William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Nursery · 6f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account in 6f Hamilton novice in May. Back on track in first-time cheekpieces when a staying-on third of 13 on nursery bow at Ayr (6f, soft) 8 days ago. Ought to be thereabouts with this longer trip a likely plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 13525/0442 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f6y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS17/0524 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 81 · 6f Sta 137 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 81 par25/074OR 812 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 80 par20/082OR 802 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 79 · 6f Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 79 par18/092OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr23rd1st+2
2026-08-20York220th18th+2
2026-07-25Newcastle411th11th0
2026-05-17Hamilton21st-1th+2
2026-04-25Ripon43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0417/0525/0720/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
17/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
25/07/202611th28/10%23%+0.23
20/08/202620th150/10%0%0.00
18/09/20263rd28/10%83%+0.83