5

Wolf Bay

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 78

Haydock · William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Nursery · 6f 212y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off 80/1 but much improved on his third run when second of 9 in novice at Windsor (6f, good to soft) 4 weeks ago. Not out of things upped in trip for his first go in handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR - · 6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0722 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0724 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Gd 13029/084projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor42nd2nd0
2026-07-28Goodwood210th8th+2
2026-07-09Newbury211th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0728/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +31.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/202611th16/116%41%+0.25
28/07/202610th125/10%36%+0.36
29/08/20262nd80/10%88%+0.88