1
Alther Walden
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 86
Haydock · William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-14 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |