Mick Collins
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 78
Haydock · William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Listowel | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA123 | 4th | 14th | −8 |
| 2025-07-28 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 73% | -0.20 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |