IvyArcIvyArc
3

Shadow Dance

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83

Haydock · William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who's been a long way below his smart best for present yard this year. Addition of more severe headgear will need to spark a revival, for all he did run better than on return when beaten 10 lengths in this grade at York last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m6f115y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2024 · OR 100 par13/092OR 1002 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 100 · 1m1f197y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 22 · OR 100 · 1m5f188y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 100 par23/082OR 1002 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 99 · 1m6f115y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 99 par2 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 97 · 1m2f219y 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 97 par28/012OR 972 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m4f Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 92 · 1m5f216y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 92 par4/043OR 922 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 89 · 1m3f188y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 86 · 2m56y GS 143 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 86 par6/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York47th7th0
2026-08-21York213th11th+2
2026-04-04Musselburgh313th12th+1
2026-02-21Lingfield27th5th+2
2026-01-28Kempton26th4th+2
2025-09-12Doncaster27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0912/094/046/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength29%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20243rd3/184%71%-0.13
29/07/20259th16/116%53%+0.37
23/08/202511th9/153%52%-0.00
12/09/20257th9/276%50%-0.26
28/01/20266th28/10%44%+0.44
21/02/20267th50/10%0%0.00
04/04/202613th33/10%0%0.00
21/08/202613th50/10%20%+0.20
06/09/20267th50/10%45%+0.45