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Trojan Sun

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 71

Haydock · William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Benefited from a drop in class when successful off this mark in Class 5 company at Carlisle in mid-June. Again ran well in this grade when 6 lengths third at Musselburgh (2¼m) last time, early keenness just taking its toll in the closing stages. Should give another good account back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m5f16y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 73 par17/053OR 735 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 71 · 1m6f32y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m3f39y GF 134 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 71 par24/064OR 714 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 2m56y Goo 129 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 74 · 2m56y Goo 129 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par24/074OR 742 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 74 · 2m4f137y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 73 · 2m2f28y Gd 132 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 73 par25/084OR 734 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 72 · 2m56y GS 129 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 2m2f28y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 72 par12/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-09-06York46th6th0
2026-08-25Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-07-31Goodwood27th5th+2
2026-07-24York410th10th0
2026-07-11York43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0511/0725/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
15/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
24/06/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
11/07/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
24/07/202610th8/158%25%-0.33
31/07/20267th125/10%57%+0.57
25/08/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
06/09/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
12/09/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12