Penelope's Gift

3yo Filly · 8-10

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Colonial Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-07-12	Colonial Downs	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-06-19	Laurel Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▼

Strength54%

Delivery trend -29.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/06/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	86%	+0.38
12/07/2026	4th	16/1	16%	63%	+0.47
06/08/2026	6th	8/1	58%	38%	-0.20