2
Baru
2yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 65
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |