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8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 25/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2025 · OR 103 par25/05C7OR 103C7 @ Laurel Park 09/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 94 parC7 @ Laurel Park 23/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 92 par23/11C7OR 92C7 @ Laurel Park 13/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 1m1f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 84 parC7 @ Laurel Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 93 par5/02C7OR 93C7 @ Laurel Park 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 1m1f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 98 parC8 @ Laurel Park 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 100 · 7f 119 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 100 par3/04C8OR 100C8 @ Laurel Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m1f Fm 123 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Laurel Park 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 1m110y Gd 123 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 92 par13/09C8OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Laurel Park?1st1st0
2026-04-25Laurel Park?6th6th0
2026-04-03Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-02-28Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-02-05Laurel Park?3rd2nd+1
2025-12-13Laurel Park?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0513/123/0413/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20256th13/266%29%-0.37
09/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
23/11/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
13/12/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
05/02/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
28/02/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
03/04/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
25/04/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
13/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14