Kitty's Son

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-13	Laurel Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-08-07	Delaware Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-07-11	Delaware Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-14	Laurel Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-06-07	Laurel Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-31	Laurel Park	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength16%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/04/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	67%	-0.16
19/04/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
03/05/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
31/05/2026	8th	30/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/06/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	83%	+0.57
14/06/2026	6th	33/1	0%	17%	+0.17
11/07/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	83%	-0.04
07/08/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
13/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00