Mugatu
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |