War Commander
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 66
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 12/12/2024 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 02/02/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/03/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |