3
Jolly Boss
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |