11
Lex's Game
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2024-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 05/10/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 25/10/2024 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |