8
Fayes Heart
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |