Hell Ofa Hillbilly
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |