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One True Dude

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 79

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 26/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f110y Gd 12226/04C9C9 @ Pimlico 11/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 62 · 5f Fm 126 · beat its mark11/05/2025 · OR 62 par11/05C9OR 62C9 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 62 par13/06C9OR 62C6 @ Charles Town 06/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 6f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2025 · OR 61 par6/07C6OR 61C5 @ Charles Town 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 71 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 71 par16/08C5OR 71C8 @ Laurel Park 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f 126 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 73 par22/03C8OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-22Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2025-08-16Charles Town?1st-2th+3
2025-07-06Charles Town?1st-1th+2
2025-06-13Laurel Park?8th9th−1
2025-05-11Pimlico?2nd3rd−1
2025-04-26Laurel Park?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0411/0513/066/0716/0822/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength92%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20258th50/10%30%+0.30
11/05/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
13/06/20258th12/137%13%-0.24
06/07/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
16/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
22/03/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02