Pencil Me In

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-23	Delaware Park	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-11	Delaware Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-05	Laurel Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-05-30	Laurel Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-04-24	Laurel Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-10	Laurel Park	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/01/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
04/02/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
21/03/2026	5th	10/1	47%	20%	-0.27
10/04/2026	5th	14/1	26%	20%	-0.06
24/04/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02
30/05/2026	6th	10/1	47%	44%	-0.03
05/06/2026	6th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
11/07/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
23/07/2026	5th	8/1	58%	43%	-0.15