5
Meshach
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 59
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +31.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |