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2

Nick's Notion

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 91

Laurel Park · Race 6 - All Along Stakes · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Laurel Park 27/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 114 · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 81 par27/04C5OR 81C5 @ Laurel Park 24/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 115 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 85 · 1m110y 116 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 85 par20/06C5OR 85C5 @ Laurel Park 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 77 · 1m 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 par16/05C5OR 77C5 @ Laurel Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m110y 123 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 1m2f Yie 123 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 84 par2/08C5OR 84C5 @ Colonial Downs 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 87 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Yie 1225/09C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Colonial Downs?1st1st0
2026-08-15Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-02Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-28Laurel Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-16Laurel Park?5th6th−1
2026-04-26Laurel Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0426/042/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20256th8/158%17%-0.41
24/05/20252nd20/10%89%+0.89
20/06/20253rd11/271%33%-0.38
26/04/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
16/05/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
28/06/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
02/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
15/08/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
05/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14