IvyArcIvyArc
7

Salty Senorita

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 90

Laurel Park · Race 6 - All Along Stakes · 1m 1f

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f Fm 1189/05C6C6 @ Laurel Park 31/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f 124 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 78 par1/03C6OR 78C6 @ Turfway Park 26/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 77 · 6f 124 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fm 125 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par26/04C5OR 78C5 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Canterbury Park 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 88 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 88 par27/06C5OR 88BHA96 @ Ellis Park 02/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m 122 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 96 par2/0896OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Ellis ParkBHA968th14th−5
2026-06-27Canterbury Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-04-26Churchill Downs?4th5th−1
2026-03-26Turfway Park?8th9th−1
2026-03-01Turfway Park?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0526/0327/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength29%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20257th5/174%33%-0.40
31/05/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
01/03/20268th13/266%36%-0.29
26/03/20268th16/116%30%+0.14
26/04/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
23/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/06/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
02/08/20268th33/10%13%+0.13