4
Shore War
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 97
Laurel Park · Race 6 - All Along Stakes · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 08/02/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/03/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |