5
Forrest City
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |