2
Ice Shot
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-10-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |