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Blue Johnl

4yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 100

Listowel · John Lynch Memorial Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden pointer who is bred to stay well but stepped up on previous hurdling efforts when 14 lengths second of 11 to First Ascent in 2m maiden at Kilbeggan 23 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m2f200y Gd 15424/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m3f Gd 1558/08C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1563/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?2nd2nd0
2026-08-08Kilbeggan?8th8th0
2026-07-24Kilbeggan?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/078/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +44.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20269th11/142%43%+0.01
08/08/20268th50/10%42%+0.42
03/09/20262nd125/10%90%+0.90