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14

The Two Mary's

4yo Filly · 11-0

Listowel · John Lynch Memorial Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Affinisea filly. Failed to complete both starts in points but showed a bit at long odds in a Galway bumper last month (third past the post but subsequently demoted to fourth). Went backwards from that at Tramore 2 weeks later, though. Makes little appeal on hurdling bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m Goo 1512/08C?C0 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 2m140y Goo 16216/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Tramore?10th10th0
2026-08-02Galway?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0816/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -78.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20263rd40/10%60%+0.60
16/08/202610th12/137%18%-0.19