Trubshaw
4yo Gelding · 11-7
Listowel · John Lynch Memorial Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA74 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA66 | 1st | -1th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA68 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA72 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA72 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.21 |
| 24/05/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 39% | +0.34 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |