1
Clay Pigeons
6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 122
Listowel · Allman Contracts Novice Hurdle · 2m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Fakenham | 4 | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-04-21 | Cork | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |