4
Rosie's Wings
6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 120
Listowel · Allman Contracts Novice Hurdle · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-05 | Roscommon | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-06-16 | Kilbeggan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 16/06/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 05/08/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |