9
Avalo
7yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 121
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA119 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA119 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | BHA112 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Cheltenham | 3 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | BHA110 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | BHA108 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 94% | +0.20 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 14/11/2025 | 17th | 12/1 | 37% | 6% | -0.31 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/08/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |