Elusive Ogie
5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 117
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA112 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA113 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA114 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA115 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 05/04/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 59% | +0.54 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |