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5yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 122

Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Grade 3 bumper winner on debut in France in 2024. Encouraging start over hurdles after 20 months off when third at Killarney (2½m) in May and opened hurdles account in 18-runner novice hurdle at Cork (2¼m, good to soft) in August. More to offer on handicap debut. A likely player for top yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Lyon-Parilly 29/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 13629/09C1C8 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m4f50y Goo 16611/05C8C8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 24 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1666/06C8C8 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1663/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Cork?1st1st0
2026-06-06Punchestown?11th11th0
2026-05-11Killarney?3rd3rd0
2024-09-29Lyon-Parilly?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0911/056/063/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -9.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20241st5/174%100%+0.26
11/05/20263rd5/287%82%-0.05
06/06/202611th6/492%57%-0.36
03/08/20261st1/195%100%+0.05