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7

Matt Connor

6yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 124

Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest hurdles victory at Naas in January but back in good form after a break, chopped for room turning in when fifth of 20 in handicap hurdle at Galway (17f, good to soft) in August. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f165y Yie 16620/09C8BHA107 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 107 · 2m80y Sft 163 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 107 parBHA107 @ Limerick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 107 · 2m70y Yie 165 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 107 par18/10107OR 107BHA114 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 114 · 2m Yie 143 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 114 parBHA114 @ Naas 25/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 114 · 2m2f150y Hvy 161 · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 114 par25/01114OR 114BHA62 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 62 · 1m1f100y Sft 132 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 62 parBHA125 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 24 · OR 125 · 2m3f81y Yie 163 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 125 par28/04125OR 125BHA70 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 70 · 2m Goo 138 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 70 parBHA124 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 124 · 2m175y Goo 160 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 124 par1/08124OR 124projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01GalwayBHA1245th5th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA704th4th0
2026-04-28PunchestownBHA12512th12th0
2026-04-08Gowran ParkBHA621st1st0
2026-01-25NaasBHA1141st1st0
2025-12-27LeopardstownBHA1144th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0927/1228/041/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20257th40/10%60%+0.60
03/10/20255th22/10%67%+0.67
18/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
27/12/20254th20/10%81%+0.81
25/01/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/04/202612th16/116%52%+0.36
07/07/20264th5/287%70%-0.17
01/08/20265th16/116%79%+0.63