10
Sequoiaspirit
9yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 121
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA72 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA115 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | BHA71 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA119 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA121 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 02/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |