15
Serienmond
6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 115
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#13
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA114 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA114 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Navan | BHA116 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | BHA117 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | BHA117 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 87% | +0.16 |
| 29/04/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 45% | -0.10 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 74% | +0.37 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |