1
Tullyhill
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 140
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
150/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | BHA145 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-02-06 | Thurles | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-01-11 | Fairyhouse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2023 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 26/11/2023 | 2nd | 1/8 | 99% | 75% | -0.24 |
| 12/01/2024 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/02/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/03/2024 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 30% | -0.56 |
| 14/12/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 11/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 91% | -0.01 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 14/01/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |