11
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10yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 121
Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA122 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA122 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA121 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA123 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA122 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |