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17

Young Churchill

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 112

Listowel · M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#14

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced winning hurdler. Posted a respectable sixth on Flat at Navan 24 days ago. Needs to step forward from 2 lb out of handicap back hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m1f130y Yie 135 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 75 par11/09C8OR 75C8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 71 · 2m66y Goo 142 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 117 · 2m4f110y Yie 154 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 117 par29/11C8OR 117BHA68 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m2f150y Std 128 · below its mark28/01/2026 · OR 68 parBHA64 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m6f Hvy 134 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 64 par30/0364OR 64BHA60 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f65y Gd 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 60 · 1m3f103y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/0760OR 60BHA60 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m5f56y Yie 142 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 59 · 2m Goo 149 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 59 par2/0959OR 59projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA596th6th0
2026-08-05SligoBHA6010th10th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA607th7th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA603rd3rd0
2026-03-30NavanBHA6410th10th0
2026-01-28DundalkBHA687th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0928/0115/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20257th11/271%45%-0.26
09/10/202510th33/10%10%+0.10
29/11/20256th33/10%0%0.00
28/01/20267th50/10%0%0.00
30/03/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
11/07/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
15/07/20267th6/168%57%-0.11
05/08/202610th11/142%31%-0.11
02/09/20266th33/10%67%+0.67