5
Ladiam
9yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 91
Listowel · Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA90 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA92 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA92 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA94 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 94% | +0.79 |