3
Barry Lyndon
8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 138
Listowel · Charlie Chute Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | BHA133 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thurles | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 30/11/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 18/01/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 72% | +0.46 |
| 22/02/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |